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Baseball Discussion On A Higher Level

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[13 Aug 2005|03:58pm]
My name is Alex and I'm new here. I'm 19 and I live in Berkeley, CA, which is about fifteen minutes from the Oakland Coliseum, where the A's play, and where they're about to go 40 - 10 over their last 50 games. I was supposed to go to the game today. I don't remember why I'm not there. Needless to say, I'm an A's fan. How are you guys doing?


I'm also wondering if anyone has team statistics on going from 1st to 3rd. I mean success ratio, and ideally how many additional runs are created from taking the extra base.
4 brought the heat |post comment

[07 Aug 2005|11:34pm]

I have something to say about the user info of this community. This was found there:

4) RBIs and wins/losses as uses for an argument shall not and will not be tolerated.

"Shall not" and "will not" are the same thing. Thus, I think the mods should consider revising it, just to make the community slightly more attractive. That's just my two cents.
5 brought the heat |post comment

[19 Jul 2005|02:35pm]

Well I just joined this community. Im 19 years old. I was born and raised in Framingham, Mass. I moved to Chicago,Ill. for 2 years to live with my girlfriend. Then moved down to Tampa 1 and 1/2 years ago where I am currently living. My favorite team is the RedSox then the Chicago Cubs. Um nothing else right now. How is everyone doing?
5 brought the heat |post comment

community promotion [04 Jul 2005|08:52pm]

For those of you who enjoy baseball trivia, theme teams, and baseball history...Collapse )
1 brought the heat |post comment

Adjusted OBP, SLG, OPS [04 Jul 2005|05:23pm]

Warning: This is only an idea to be incorporated into a few spreadsheets, evaluated, criticized, and maybe stuck in the back of your mind somewhere as something almost useful but not really. If you find that it does or does not correlate well, say so! :)

Okay, let's get started:
  1. Since a CS effectively removes a baserunner and creates an out, subtract it from OB to get aOB. Divide by PA to get aOBP.

  2. Since a SB effectively adds a base and means better scoring potential, add SB to TB to get aTB. Divide by AB to get aSLG.

  3. Add aOBP and aSLG to get aOPS.
Aside from putting Rickey Henderson among the all-time greats where he deserves to be, and putting other basestealers one or two offensive levels above where they are currently categorized, aOPS isn't all that useful for individual stats.

What I'm curious about, though, is how useful the aOBP and aSLG might (or might not) be in calculating Runs Created and/or correlating with actual runs scored. I have run a few regressions using recent seasons' data, and the r2 is basically equal to that of OPS... but I wonder if that gets better or worse as you look deeper into the past.

Here are the career numbers for a few key players so you can see how it affects basestealers' numbers (compare McGwire and Henderson!):

Barry Bonds1.053504/1411.097
Mark McGwire0.98212/80.983
Alex Rodriguez0.954205/500.983
Willie Mays0.941338/1030.964
Ken Griffey Jr0.937178/660.953
Hank Aaron0.928240/730.942
Rickey Henderson0.8191406/3350.922
Lou Brock0.751938/3070.815
6 brought the heat |post comment

[30 Jun 2005|10:33pm]

My sincerest apologies to that filth that clogged up your friends page. The user was banned and the offending image deleted as soon as I saw it. Again, my apologies for that.

I didn't even know they had pornography on the internet.
15 brought the heat |post comment

[28 Jun 2005|01:42pm]

Hi, everyone. First post.

I'm not sure how many times I'm going to post in the future since I'm not a very statistically-minded fan, but I do have a question.

Does anybody know what percentage of runners who reach on leadoff walks eventually come around to score? I'm wondering if it's higher than the percentage for leadoff hits. If not, does anyone have an idea of how I could find out?

6 brought the heat |post comment

AL vs. NL [02 Jun 2005|01:32am]

This one's for the statistically-minded people.

Is the concept of the American League being a much more offensive, home run-driven league than the National League a myth? After crunching a few numbers, for the most part I think so. Consider the following, taking certain team stats:

In 2004:
Avg R per team:		AL - 811.4 (5.01/game)	NL - 751.0 (4.64/game)
Avg HR per team:	AL - 186.1 (1.15/game)	NL - 177.9 (1.10/game)
Avg SB per team:	AL - 89.5 (0.55/game)	NL - 83.5 (0.52/game)
Avg SH per team:	AL - 38.6 (0.24/game)	NL - 74.4 (0.46/game)
Avg SF per team:	AL - 47.1 (0.29/game)	NL - 44.0 (0.27/game)

As you'd expect, the NL was well ahead of the AL in sacrifice bunts, but what may be surprising is how close the two leagues were in HR and SB, with the AL actually ahead of the NL in SB. The reason that's significant to me is because when you think NL ball, at least when I do, I think small ball like bunts and stolen bases. Then again, it looks like the AL tends to utilize the stolen base a little more to compensate for fewer sacrifice bunts. The HR were close enough to me as to be nearly a wash.

2003, 2002, 2001 inside, plus four-year averages and 2005 totals to date.Collapse )

So, aside from me having a lot of time on my hands to throw this stuff together, what do these averages tell you about the differences in the two leagues? I'm interested to find out.
7 brought the heat |post comment

Potentially Useful Pitching Stats [06 May 2005|12:12pm]

I was told that some of you guys might like to criticize some stats I've derived. The top 10's among starting pitchers for the first 1/6 of the 2005 season are here. DIPP leaders are not included, but leaders in OPS Against is, so if nothing else it's a good chance to see who's dominating pitching in MLB 2005 according to these numbers. As the season goes on and samples get large enough to give meaningful results, I'll post fuller lists somewhere for everyone to enjoy.

  1. Defense Independent Pitching Percentage (DIPP), or Independent Effectiveness (IEff), is an effectiveness rating for pitchers that ignores any ball put in play, thus theoretically equalizing the field behind them and measuring only the baserunners allowed (walks, hit-by-pitch, home runs) versus outs recorded (strikeouts) that do not involve the defense in any way. It isn't perfect and it breaks down in the short run, when you try to compare starters to relievers, or when you try to compare pitchers from two distinctly different eras. But over the course of a single season or an otherwise reasonably consistent timeframe, it holds pretty well. At least as well as any of the other major statistics whose highs and lows have fluctuated wildly over time.
    DIP2 = K/(K+BB+HBP+4*HR-IBB)

    2004's top 25 among starters and relievers are listed on the other side of this link, and the top 36 all-time are listed in a comment below that. That link also leads to a much more detailed explanation of why I like DIPP so much (and DIP2, which puts more emphasis on home runs allowed at the request of others -- that's not the purpose of this statistic, though).

  2. Effectiveness (Eff) is simply a measure of outs recorded per batter faced, which just lets you know how effective a pitcher was while on the mound, disregarding ballpark factors and the quality of the defense behind him. DIPP or IEff above at least takes the defense out of the equation. But still, this statistic is probably much more useful, because defense and ballpark barely affect the amount of batters a pitcher faces. Wildness and allowing hits will catch up to any pitcher over time.
    Eff = 3*IP/TBF

  3. Adjusted WHIP (aWHIP) adds several statistics to the numerator of traditional WHIP statistic. In addition to walks and hits, I have added hit-by-pitches, wild pitches, balks, stolen bases against, sacrifice flies, and sacrifice hits to account for a pitcher's wildness and tendency to allow baserunners to advance. The main argument against all these additions is that each one affects a game differently, wild pitches and balks tend to hurt more (though the magnitude is guesswork) because runners are on base, and sac flies and bunts should have nothing to do with it. However, the purpose of the statistic is just to provide a very rough measure of a pitcher allowing runners to move. And hits certainly allow runners to move more than walks, just as wild pitches do. So it isn't intended to be exact.

    Originally, I had used the term "Adjusted WHIP" to refer to WHIP with only the inclusion of HBP in the numerator, since that seems to just make good sense. Adding wild pitches and balks to that might also make a little sense, despite the runners-on-base requirement. And sacrifices probably don't seem to fit logically, but I include them because they represent runners advancing (perhaps I should remove sacrifice hits and only keep sacrifice flies, since they represent the ability to move runners all the way to third and get runs). Still, the current leaderboard makes it enticing.

  4. Another free base number removes hits from the numerator of Adjusted WHIP above, and changes the denominator from innings to the total number of chances a batter-runner has to earn a free base. That is, the denominator is total plate appearances plus total times reached base (not counting catcher's interference, although it probably should to be accurate). This stat's name probably makes you wonder why sacrifices are included, since bases gained for those aren't exactly free. To be honest, I haven't thought about this one much (as you can tell by its generic name to this point), but once again the leaderboard makes it promising.

  5. A couple other statistics I've been working on are the Saves plus Holds Percentage, which should be obvious given its title. Since Hold opportunities are the same as Save opportunities except a pitcher doesn't finish the game to get a Hold (but still gets a Blown Save for blowing a "Hold opportunity"), then I just add Holds to both the numerator and denominator of Save Percentage, so Holds are included in successful attempts and total opportunities. Suddenly, closers and setup relievers can be compared with the same number, which makes sense since many closers get a hold or two over the course of a season, and many setup relievers get saves here and there. And both groups get blown saves, and it's been unfair for setup relievers for too long that people look at them badly based on Save Percentage.
    SvH% = (Sv+Hld)/(Sv+Hld+BSv)

As soon as I find time to do it and a worthy server-side database/spreadsheet method of HTML-izing huge tables instead of doing them by hand, leaderboards for these statistics will be on my web site somewhere. I'll post a heads-up about it when I eventually get to it!

And I'll post some offensive numbers soon too, after I post the 2004 leaderboards in baseball!
18 brought the heat |post comment

Commish Talks Tough [01 May 2005|12:29am]

Selig seeks tougher penalties

What do you guys think?
4 brought the heat |post comment

Hello [28 Apr 2005|06:32pm]

[ mood | tired ]

Hey everyone I am new. I'm a die hard Yankees fan living in Massachusetts which stinks. This community is really cool.

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[11 Apr 2005|03:54pm]

Teams rely less on speed now than ever before. The numbers have shown that you need to steal at a 75% rate to be a help to the team instead of hurting it. The more teams learn the less they want to run into outs. But does speed on the basepaths help in other areas?

I've always heard that when there's a fast runner on first, the batter has an advantage. The pitcher won't be concentrating entirely on the hitter and the hitter will see more fastballs. So it's said that the batter has it easier. Is there any research out there to show that it's true?

If there's not it'd be very easy to find out. What kind of situations would I keep track of if I was thinking of looking into that? Obviously I'd want to see how a hitter did with a speedy hitter on first and compare it to when there is no speedy runner on first. Would the number of outs matter? Would it matter if there was someone else on another base?
7 brought the heat |post comment

[03 Apr 2005|11:47am]

Another season in the books, another one beginning. Good luck to everyone this year.
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[30 Mar 2005|06:54pm]

"I think walks are over-rated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time they’re clogging up the bases for somebody who can run.
Who’s been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? You ain’t going to walk across the plate. You’re going to hit across the plate. That’s the school I come from.

It’s called hitting, and it ain’t called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit."

- Dusty Baker

I'm not a Cubs fan and boy am I glad. With their pitching staff in the infermery and Baker calling the shots the team is in trouble this year.

Want to know what's weird though? I got that quote from this article and with all Baker's talk about how he'd rather see hits than walks the writer of the article finds that the guys under Baker's reign actualy walk more for him than when they play for another team.
3 brought the heat |post comment

Fantasy League [21 Mar 2005|10:22pm]

I’ve still got four spots open in my sabermetrically inclined fantasy league. Its based on Win Shares and DIPS (you can see the full settings here), so if you’re interested in joining a league thats based on good stats, instead of the usual RBI, Wins, etc, leagues, let me know.
2 brought the heat |post comment

[14 Mar 2005|02:08am]

This may be a little unrelated to the community, but have any of you gotten into MVP Baseball (the EA sports game)?

A lot of baseball fans I know are into the game, and I was wondering if any of you have tried to build a team in the Dynasty mode using a sabermetric approach, and whether or not that affects how many runs your team scores. Whenever I actually play the game my OBP is really low because it's tough to draw walks, but I've never actually simmed through a season with a team built around patient hitters.

I haven't even played the game since last season so I have no idea why I'm asking now. I wish I knew about this community a year ago.
8 brought the heat |post comment

Power-hitting Shortstops? [14 Mar 2005|04:12am]

My friend danielle09, and I were discussing shortstops earlier. We are also diehard Indians fans, although that should be taken with a grain of salt with this topic.

Over the years, shortstops have become more and more powerful hitters. Has this set the standard for shortstops to come? We feel that better-fielding shortstops will be overlooked in place of power hitters.
Case in point: Omar Vizquel, with 9 Gold Gloves, is one of the best fielding shortstops in history. And although not a power hitter (only 66 homeruns lifetime), Vizquel is solid (In the Indians' hey-day, he hit over .275 for five straight years. I think that's fairly decent, don't you?) I, for one, looked up to him when I played softball as a kid, because I aspired to be a great fielder as opposed to hitting the overrated long-ball. And we (Danielle and I) feel that he may be denied HOF status because shortstops now have a new expectation to hit homers.

But now there are stars like Derek Jeter and the former shortstop Alex Rodriguez, who get more attention than great up and coming fielding stars like Bobby Crosby, Jimmy Rollins, and Khalil Green.

Anyone else have opinions/issues with this?
14 brought the heat |post comment

We have a total of 10, and a possible 12.....anyone else? Last call!!! [07 Mar 2005|11:38pm]

[ mood | excited ]

It would be great to have a total of 14 competitive teams, but if this is all I can get, then so be it. This is the last/last call for this league. Here are the LJ peeps who have joined. (FYI- You all need a Yahoo email account to join up. This league will be run via Yahoo Fantasy Baseball).

nighthawkal ( I need your email address)
beatjunkie37 (I need your email address)
savemyskin (I need your email address)
Myself, freshtastic73
...and, my RL buddy Kevin. That makes 10.

If there is anyone on this list who has decided that they do not want to participate, please email me so I make sure to no longer include you. timiathan, please let me know asap if you and your bud are gonna join 100% for sure asap.

For anyone else who may be interested in a "keeper" league with a little money involved and a lot of competition, please read the league standards below:

For all of those who are interested in joining a "keeper" league, please read on. Everyone else, I apologize for bothering you.

I'm looking for 10-14 die hard fantasy managers who are willing to take on the challenge of owning and managing a baseball team in the "keeper" format. This is designed to be a fun, exciting league where together we all can help build this league and make it great, rich in history and memories. I want this to be one of those leagues that I've always been jealous of.

This league will be a Yahoo league, so all you need is a Yahoo account.

***This will be a "Head-to-Head" scoring league. (Although I like rotisserie better, since it requires more thought, strategy and talent, I tend to see too many people quit after 1/2 of the season, because they're out of contention and don't want to try. If I can find enough people who would rather play rotisserie style, then I'm all for it.)

***This league will be a regular "on line" draft league.

***The STARTING roster size is C,1B,2B,SS,3B,4OF,CI,MI,2 UTIL....5 SP, 2 RP (closers) and 2 P + 5 bench players. Roster size equals 27.

***The scoring categories has been left undecided and will be up for vote, majority vote rules. The standard 5x5 categories apply, but we'll vote to see if anyone wants to add walks, OBP or whatever.

***Trades and free agent pickups will be free and unlimited. Trades will be decided by a league vote, and can be vetoed by the Commish if it is obviously unfair.

***The entry fee for the 1st year will be $20 per team. 100% of this money will go to the winners. 70% to the league champion, 20% to the loser of the championship game, and 10% to the team who finished in 1st place (best record) for the regular season. (We can up the money too, if we want the pot and winnings to be higher. This too, will be up for vote.)

***You will send the money to me, and I will mail the winnings via money order. I completely understand if you feel hesitant to send $20 to a stranger, but I can only vouch for myself as being honest. As a matter fo fact, I am a Warrants officer for my local city police department, and will give you detailed instructions on how to file a police report on internet fraud. I work on this stuff everyday. Fact is, I'm just a die hard fantasy baseball fan and I want to start up a great league with other die hard serious managers.

***Side pots? (This too, will be up for vote.)

***Number of keepers? Here's the deal. I've always wanted to be in a league where trading and strategy meant something. A league where the only players that got traded were the top 40. A league where a #3 or #4 SP can be thrown in the deal and actually be a factor, because person A has been watching that pitcher's career and he sees potential. If the roster is 27 deep, I'd like the keepers to be between 12-16. Yeah, we would have a small draft every year, but the point is to build a dynasty like in real life. "Keepers" are equal to "contracts". If your star SS gets injured, you may be forced to trade away your #3 power outfielder to replace infield "hole" with someone decent.

Like I said, this league is designed for the die-hard fantasy studs. The guys who take fantasy baseball seriously, and who are serious about joining and help form a great keeper league that we can have fun in for years to come.

All that are interested, please email me or leave a comment to this post. If I can get 10-14 serious guys who want to play, I'll set up a Yahoo league asap. Including me, I have 3 so far. Any questions, concerns, comments, please ask.

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Last call...... [07 Mar 2005|12:02am]

[ mood | hopeful ]

I'm still trying to find a few more dedicated, die-hard fantasy baseball managers who are willing to take on the challenge to join and help start a new keeper league that I'm trying to setup and establish. Yes, I know we all have our leagues that we're in, but how many of you aren't very happy with your leagues? If not,t hen check out this link, read what I have to say, and give it a shot. So far, these LJ guys have signed up and said that they are 100% in. I have already created the league, and I need to set a draft time and tell everyone asap. More than likely it will be on a Saturday, but we'll try to work around everyone's schedules. We just need to start this quick! Only 27 days until Opening Day!

myself, freshtastic73, and my friend Kevin makes 6.

We need at least 4 more, and hopefully more. I'll take a total of 14 teams if at all possible.

Come on, shoot me an email (or reply on here) and take tha challenge. See if you got what it takes to be in a "real" keeper league!

Thanks for looking! Here is the link: http://www.livejournal.com/community/fantasybaseball/258180.html

5 brought the heat |post comment

Re: http://www.livejournal.com/community/baseball_elite/11643.html [27 Feb 2005|06:33pm]

A few posts ago, I was asking for info about a research paper I'm writing. The original thread can be found here:


My main problem right now is that Stats, Inc. wants $2000 to put together the statistics report that I need for my paper (after spending 4 days getting back to me...which pissed me off as well). $2000 is absurd. So now I have to do it myself.

I need at least the last 5 years (preferably the last 10 years) of statistics broken down by position (C, 1b, 2b, SS,3b, OF, SP, RP) and by year. I need the basic 10 fantasy statistics (BAvg, Runs, HR, RBI, SBs, ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves, Wins), and I need it in a format that is, in the very least, copy/pastable into MS Excel (preferably in .xls format to begin with).

Does anybody here know where I could obtain something like that fairly quickly and cheaply? Are there any baseball almanacs in bookstores that have stats on CD or something like that?

Thanks again.

2 brought the heat |post comment

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