Dr. Dave (od_mind) wrote in baseball_elite,
Dr. Dave
od_mind
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MVP candidates through 9/16

Total Wins above replacement value at position (WARP1), through Friday's games.

AL

1. 9.7 Alex Rodriguez
2. 9.6 Brian Roberts
3. 8.6 Miguel Tejada
4. 8.4 Derek Jeter
4. 8.4 Mark Teixeira
6. 7.6 Vladimir Guerrero
7. 7.2 David Ortiz
8. 6.8 Johan Santana
9. 6.6 Gary Sheffield
10 6.5 Richie Sexson

NL

1. 12.0 Derrek Lee
2. 10.2 Albert Pujols
3. 10.0 Dontrelle Willis
4. 9.8 Jason Bay
5. 9.3 Roger Clemens
6. 8.7 Morgan Ensberg
6. 8.7 Andruw Jones
6. 8.7 Miguel Cabrera
9. 8.4 Brian Giles
10 8.1 Jeff Kent


I see a two man race in each league, but it isn't the 2 men you hear about in the media.

In the AL, it's essentially a dead heat between Alex Rodriguez and Brian Roberts. A-Rod started slow, but has been a monster in the second half. Roberts amost single-handedly put his team in contention through the All-Star break, but was let down by his teammates. A-Rod has better offense, Roberts much better defense and baserunning. I could go either way; the last few weeks may separate them more.

In the NL, Derrek Lee is the clear winner among the hitters (with apologies to the wonderful seasons by Pujols and Bay). Again, stellar defense makes the difference. However, I could see a strong case being made for Dontrelle Willis, given the higher leverage of his per-game contribution and the less obvious value of all those complete games, resting the bullpen in ways that other teams aren't getting. His hitting has been non-negligable too. Again, I could go either way, and the last few weeks may make all the difference.

I honestly can't see any case at all for Andruw Jones or David Ortiz. Jones makes too many outs, and his defense has finally started to show his age -- he's been outstanding, but not as outstanding as the top players this year. Ortiz may possibly be the best hitter in the AL, but not by enough to make up for the things his non-DH competitors do with their gloves. Barry Bonds vintage 2001-2004 could deserve an MVP as a DH, or even as a below-replacement fielder, but for any mere mortal it would be very very difficult.
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